Orders & Indices

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) declined in November to a reading of -1.58 with weaker spot rates primarily responsible. Overall, trucking conditions are holding in a narrow window generating slightly negative readings for the TCI. The FTR forecast is for it to remain in near neutral range until conditions improve modestly in late 2020.

FTR reports that preliminary trailer orders for December were the lowest since August at 16,500 units. December trailer orders were -17% m/m and -41% y/y. Trailer orders for 2019 totaled 203,000 units.

Shipper conditions for October held steady in a reasonably favorable climate reflected in an unchanged SCI reading for the month of 6.4.  All index inputs were positive except for fuel, which was only slightly negative. However, the global reduction in the sulfur content of marine fuel â€" IMO 2020 â€" could increasingly impact future fuel costs.

FTR reports that preliminary trailer orders for November at 20,200 units fell 34% from October, as fleets are becoming more cautious about freight conditions in 2020. On a year-over-year comparison, orders were also down 55% from November 2018, when limits on OEM capacity resulted in carriers placing huge orders to lock in build slots throughout 2019. Trailer orders for the last twelve months total 215,000 units.

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for October, at -1.04, reflected improved conditions although still in negative territory. Freight demand was the principal factor driving the improvement. While the industrial economy remains sluggish, strong housing numbers are cause for some optimism. FTR expects trucking to hold steady in a mediocre environment with the TCI hovering close to a neutral reading at least through the first half of 2020.