FTR reports December 2025 North American (N.A.) Class 8 truck/tractor preliminary net orders skyrocketed to their highest level since October 2022, up 108% month-over-month (m/m) and 21% year-over-year (y/y) to 42,200 units – well above the 10-year December average of 29,351. While both on-highway and vocational markets saw similar percentage gains relative to the prior month, on-highway made up the bulk of the y/y increase in orders. Despite the strong performance in December, cumulative 2026-season net orders from September through December were down 22% y/y, reflecting broad market headwinds. Class 8 orders have totaled 22,178 units for the past 12 months.
A key driver of the strong December order performance was improved policy visibility on both tariffs and emissions regulations following clarifications in October and November. The Section 232 tariffs on Class 3-8 trucks implemented on November 1 turned out to be less onerous than many had feared, and regulatory uncertainty has eased. The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose revisions to the 2027 NOx rule in March or April that would retain the 2027 implementation date and the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard while eliminating the costly extended warranty requirements and modifying other compliance provisions. Word of EPA’s plan did not circulate until about 10 days before Thanksgiving, which probably is a factor in why the order surge occurred during December and not November.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs. As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection. A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions.”
Dan Moyer
Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles©2026 FTR Transportation Intelligence. All rights reserved.