In September, preliminary net orders for North American Class 8 trucks and tractors reached 20,500 units – up 60% month-over-month (m/m) but 41% below September last year. This marks the ninth straight month of year-over-year (y/y) declines, a concerning trend as order boards open for 2026 production. Orders also fell well short of the 10-year September average of 29,499 units, underscoring fleet hesitancy amid trade tensions, tariff uncertainty, and broader economic headwinds weighing on freight demand. Both vocational and on-highway segments posted solid gains with the latter driving most of the m/m growth. However, on-highway also accounts for the bulk of the y/y decline, keeping the outlook cautious. Class 8 orders have totaled 237,467 units over the past 12 months.
The weak start to the 2026 order season shows that core industry pressures remain. Month-to-month gains offer only temporary relief as y/y declines highlight weak freight demand, strained carrier profitability, and subdued fleet confidence. This environment creates uncertainty for OEMs and suppliers, and order activity likely will remain volatile. Without a recovery in freight volumes and rates, fleets will continue to limit replacement and expansion, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “On September 25, President Trump announced on social media a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks, effective October 1. However, no official details have been released from the U.S. government yet. It remains unclear when the tariff might be implemented and whether the tariff also covers medium-duty trucks, parts, or USMCA-compliant imports. The news has already rattled fleets, OEMs, and suppliers coping with weak demand, rising costs, and fragile supply chains. The tariff adds to an already difficult trade environment. Steel, aluminum, and copper duties remain at 50%, raising component costs, and reciprocal tariffs for major trading partners further complicate sourcing.
“The immediate effect will be higher truck prices, assuming the tariff is officially implemented. Imported Class 8 trucks will face a 25% surcharge, and U.S.-built models may see added costs from imported parts. Some fleets are likely to delay or cancel orders, boosting demand for used trucks as operators extend vehicle lifecycles. Reshoring may accelerate, but U.S. factories are hampered by labor constraints, high costs, and infrastructure limits. In the near term, the market faces higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing uncertainty.”
Dan Moyer
Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles©2025 FTR Transportation Intelligence. All rights reserved.