Trailer Orders

Trailer Orders Fell in November to 13,071 Units

FTR reports U.S. trailer net orders weakened in November, falling 19% month-over-month (m/m) to 13,071 units and plunging 45% year-over-year (y/y). The decline highlights the fragility of demand as October’s seasonal lift proved short-lived rather than the start of a sustained recovery.

Order volumes remain well below historical norms, pressured by tariff-driven trailer cost increases, soft freight demand, tight margins, and limited confidence in near-term rate recovery. The sharp y/y drop suggests fleets are deferring discretionary replacements deeper into 2026 and possibly 2027. Growth-oriented ordering is unlikely until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability materially improve.

For 2025 to date, net trailer orders total 148,862 units, up 7% y/y. However, as we have noted previously, part of 2025’s y/y gain results from demand early in the year that normally would have occurred in 2024 as many fleets held off until after the November election. A more meaningful comparison period is the 2026 order season. September-November 2025 orders are down a concerning 28% y/y.

U.S. trailer production finally pulled back in November. Builds dropped 23% m/m – roughly twice the typical seasonal decline – and edged 1% lower y/y to 13,533 units. Despite the pullback, production continues to run ahead of demand as OEMs manage labor levels, fixed-cost absorption, and year-end capacity utilization. As a result, backlogs were down 1% m/m and 23% y/y to 72,697 units, but the backlog/build ratio improved to 5.4 months due to the larger m/m drop in production than in orders. Additional production cuts likely will be needed to prevent further backlog erosion unless the 2026 order season improves meaningfully.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “The U.S. trailer market is increasingly constrained by trade policy, elevated input costs, and cautious fleet behavior. Policy-related actions are now a central driver of both cost inflation and demand uncertainty. Limited visibility on trade outcomes continues to complicate pricing, sourcing, and capital allocation decisions across the industry.

“Section 232 tariffs remain the industry’s most significant and durable cost headwind, and trade risk is also building around van trailers. A U.S. International Trade Commission antidumping and countervailing-duty investigation into van trailers and subassemblies imported from Canada, China, and Mexico adds further uncertainty for cross-border supply chains and pricing dynamics in the high-volume van segment.

“Overall, tariffs and expanding trade actions are locking in higher costs and sustained uncertainty across the U.S. trailer market. OEMs and suppliers likely will respond by prioritizing localized sourcing, tariff-aware design, and flexible pricing. Dealers must manage inventory carefully and set clear expectations as higher price floors constrain demand. For fleets, rising acquisition costs and policy risk favor selective ordering, longer trade cycles, and a sharper focus on total cost of ownership.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Connect with Dan on LinkedIn

FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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Trailer Orders Fell in November to 13,071 Units