U.S. trailer net orders totaled 7,261 units in August, down 4% month-over-month (m/m) but up 3% year-over-year (y/y). Despite the slight annual gain, orders remain well below the 10-year August average of 17,568 as freight weakness, tariff pressures, and pricing uncertainty continue to weigh on demand. Cancellations eased to 16% of gross orders, down from May’s peak (39%) but still slightly above long-term norms, keeping order activity suppressed.
For the full 2025 order season (September 2024-August 2025), net orders totaled 188,519 units, down 5% y/y. For 2025 to date, however, net orders are up 28% y/y at 110,080 units, averaging just over 13,750 per month. This strength reflects backloaded orders following the November 2024 election, which inflated activity in the first quarter of the year.
Trailer production decreased slightly in August as builds declined 5% m/m and 6% y/y to 17,134 units. Year-to-date (YTD) output contracted 22% y/y at 133,851 units, averaging 16,731 per month. Backlogs fell to 81,926 units (-11% m/m; -7% y/y), lowering the backlog/build ratio to 4.8 months – the weakest since June 2020.
In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.
The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “With builds continuing to outpace new orders, OEMs face mounting pressure to balance production against a thinning pipeline. Unless order activity strengthens with the opening of 2026 order boards, the industry may confront additional headwinds heading into next year.
“For trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, tariffs are producing costs, tighter margins, and increased risk of consolidation. Larger, integrated players are more resilient, while smaller firms are vulnerable. Many fleets are delaying replacements, relying more on used trailers and curbing expansion. The 2026 order season may start later than September for some OEMs with subdued bookings as policy uncertainty and structurally higher costs weigh on demand.”
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