Trailer Orders

Trailer Orders Rebounded Sharply in December to 24,282 Units

FTR reports that December U.S. trailer net orders rebounded sharply from November, rising 86% month-over-month (m/m) to 24,282 units. Despite the strong sequential increase, orders were down 4% year-over-year (y/y) and well below the 10-year December average of 33,623 units.

The m/m rebound – led largely by the dry van segment – likely reflected a combination of factors, including deferred orders from September through November, efforts to get ahead of potential tariff-related cost pass-throughs, and an antidumping and countervailing-duty investigations into van trailers imported from Canada, China, and Mexico. Improved visibility for fleet capital-equipment planning following November clarity around Class 8 tariffs and EPA 2027 NOx regulations as well as early signs of stabilization in spot freight markets also likely contributed.

Despite these positive signs, it is premature to declare that a sustained demand recovery has begun. A more durable, growth-oriented ordering environment is unlikely to emerge until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability show meaningful improvement.

Full-year 2025 U.S. trailer net orders totaled 173,144 units, up 5% y/y, largely reflecting demand that was deferred ahead of the November 2024 election and subsequently pushed into early 2025. More telling, however, is the current read on the 2026 order season. September-December 2025 orders declined 20% y/y despite December’s notable sequential improvement.

In response to low backlogs and weak demand, U.S. trailer production fell further in December to its lowest level since September 2010. Total build declined 13% m/m and 6% y/y to 11,801 units as OEMs continued to curb output. December also marked the first time since March 2025 that orders exceeded production, lifting backlogs 16% m/m to 84,501 units. However, backlogs are down 21% y/y, highlighting how subdued the order environment has been. The backlog/build ratio improved to 7.2 months, offering modest near-term production visibility. Whether this improvement is sustainable will depend on order trends into early 2026.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “The U.S. trailer market is increasingly constrained by policy-driven cost inflation and trade uncertainty, which are now the primary forces shaping pricing and demand. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and downstream products, including heavy-duty cargo trailers and key components, have established a durable higher-cost base with little prospect of near-term relief. The potential for higher van trailer costs due to the antidumping investigation also might already be influencing sourcing and pricing decisions.

“Overall, entrenched tariffs and unresolved trade actions are likely to keep demand cautious and costs elevated, reinforcing selective purchasing and a stronger focus on total cost of ownership.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Connect with Dan on LinkedIn

FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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Trailer Orders Rebounded Sharply in December to 24,282 Units