Trailer Orders

U.S. Trailer Net Orders Fall in July to 7,794 Units

U.S. trailer net orders fell sharply in July, down 39% month-over-month (m/m) to 7,794 units as tariff pressures and freight market uncertainty erased June’s dry van-driven rebound. Orders were still 23% higher year-over-year (y/y) on weak 2024 comps, but volumes remain well below the 10-year July average of 14,856. Year-to-date (YTD) 2025 orders total 102,991 units, up 31% y/y and averaging 14,713 per month. Looking ahead, OEMs face elevated volatility, making disciplined production planning and flexible pricing strategies critical until freight demand and tariff conditions stabilize.

Order cancellations were 17% of gross orders in July, down from a peak of 39% in May. Cumulative net orders for the 2025 season (September 2024-July 2025) stand at 181,430 units, down 5% y/y and averaging 16,494 per month.

Total U.S. trailer build declined 1% m/m and 4% y/y to 17,999 units in July. YTD 2025 build is down 23% y/y to 116,826 units, averaging 16,689 per month. With net orders trailing build, backlogs fell by 11,364 units (-11% m/m; -10% y/y) to 92,132 units, lowering the backlog/build ratio to 5.1 months. The shrinking backlog signals potential production headwinds if order activity does not rebound with the opening of 2026 order boards in or about September.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, "The U.S. trailer market is now under mounting pressure as tariff exposure broadens. Higher tariff rates for most major U.S. trading partners kicked in on August 7. Potentially more directly significant for the trailer sector is an expansion of the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs as of August 18 that apparently affects not only imported key components but also the steel and aluminum content of fully assembled imported trailers.

“The escalating tariff impact could affect the trailer market in both supply and demand. OEMs and suppliers must either absorb margin losses or raise prices, possibly accelerating industry consolidation and favoring larger, vertically integrated players. Meanwhile, many fleets are extending replacement cycles – leaning more heavily on used trailers – and deferring expansion, thus dampening demand for new build.

“The market is shifting toward heightened price sensitivity and cautious capital spending with some supply chains likely considering domestic reorientation – but at structurally higher cost levels. Policy uncertainty is compounding volatility, making long-term planning increasingly difficult.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

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FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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U.S. Trailer Net Orders Fall in July to 7,794 Units

Dan Moyer