U.S. trailer net orders once again defied seasonal and market expectations, increasing 3% month-over-month (m/m) and 70% year-over-year (y/y), totaling 21,516 units. March 2025 represented the fifth consecutive month with net orders exceeding 20,000 units and positive y/y growth. However, a weak start to the 2025 order season (September 2024 through March 2025) kept cumulative net orders at 146,253 units – down 8% y/y and averaging 20,893 units per month.
Total trailer build in March increased 11% m/m – in line with seasonal expectations – to 17,611 units but decreased 26% y/y. 2025 year-to-date trailer build fell 31% y/y to 46,218 units, an average of 15,406 per month. With total trailer net orders above production, backlogs increased by 4,564 units (+4% m/m; -16% y/y) to 127,892 units for a fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, the larger m/m increase in production compared to backlogs lowered the backlog/build ratio to 7.3 months.
In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.
The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Some fleets appear to be prioritizing adding trailers in lieu of power units. So far this year, U.S. trailer net orders have outpaced total North America Class 8 net orders by 7,900 units. Given the increasing level of uncertainty – the economy, tariffs, truck freight demand and pricing, etc. – it remains to be seen if this order strength can be sustained.
“Recently imposed U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, pose significant risks to the North American trailer market, influencing both imported units and domestic production reliant on foreign-sourced materials. OEMs will likely face increased manufacturing costs, diminished margins, and possibly softened or stagnant demand. Suppliers, meanwhile, likely will experience intensified financial pressures stemming from supply chain disruptions, potentially prompting shifts toward alternative sourcing strategies or domestic partnerships. For fleets, higher prices and prolonged lead times may result in postponed procurement decisions or a renewed focus on upgrading power units instead.”
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