Trailer Orders

October Trailer Orders at 15,916 Units, a 77% M/M Improvement

FTR reports U.S. trailer net orders firmed on a seasonal basis in October, climbing 77% month-over-month (m/m) to 15,916 units but coming in 5% below year-ago levels. The sharp m/m rebound points to renewed fleet engagement – and fewer cancellations – but order volumes remain far below the 10-year October average of 37,116 as operators continue to grapple with soft freight demand, weak profitability, elevated input costs, and persistent uncertainty over trade policy and macroeconomic conditions.

Cancellations eased to just above 5%, suggesting some stabilization. However, many fleets remain cautious and are postponing 2026 commitments until market conditions and pricing visibility improve. The modest year-over-year (y/y) decline underscores that ordering behavior is still primarily replacement-driven with limited evidence of fleets adding growth capacity.

For 2025 to date, net trailer orders total 135,525 units, up 18% y/y. This increase primarily reflects backloaded demand following the November 2024 election, which pushed activity into the first quarter of 2025 that normally would have occurred in late 2024. Despite that weak start to the 2025 order cycle, the early read on the 2026 order season is even softer. Cumulative orders for September and October combined are down 15% y/y to 24,917 units as multiple market headwinds weigh on fleet sentiment.

Trailer production edged slightly lower in October with builds down 2% m/m but 2% higher y/y at 17,527 units. Despite the modest pullback, many OEMs have continued building at relatively elevated rates – likely to preserve labor continuity, support fixed-cost absorption, draw down lingering component inventories ahead of year-end, or preempt potential tariff-related cost pressures. Backlogs declined 2% m/m and 14% y/y to 71,990 units, keeping the backlog/build ratio steady at 4.1 months – its lowest point since mid-2020. With production still running ahead of demand, OEMs will need to meaningfully lower build rates soon unless the 2026 order season gains further traction.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “The U.S. trailer market continues to experience meaningful pressure from volatile trade policy, elevated material costs, and weakening fleet sentiment. Although a Supreme Court ruling could eliminate country-specific tariffs depending on the outcome, the main tariff cost for the trailer industry comes from the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper that will be unaffected.

“OEMs and suppliers are adjusting to higher costs and softer demand through selective price increases, tighter cost controls, and sourcing shifts. Fleets are extending equipment life cycles, prioritizing maintenance, and limiting new capital commitments as elevated costs and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on near-term trailer demand.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Connect with Dan on LinkedIn

FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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October Trailer Orders at 15,916 Units, a 77% M/M Improvement