Trailer Orders

FTR Reports U.S. Trailer Orders in June Reflect Solid Demand at 14,474 Units

U.S. heavy-duty trailer demand cooled in June but remained solid for a seasonally slow month. Net orders fell 28% month over month (m/m) to 14,474 units but rose 14% year over year (y/y) and were 8% above the 10-year June average of 13,379 units. The pullback likely indicates that April and May’s stronger intake was temporary rather than a new run rate. With summer typically weak, demand is unlikely to improve meaningfully until 2027 order boards begin opening around September. Refrigerated van and flatbed orders drove most of June’s y/y growth while dry van demand weakened after several solid months of orders. Almost all other segments improved from last year.

June builds rose 6% m/m to 17,633 units but were 1% below last year. Year-to-date production was nearly flat, down 0.5% y/y to 97,165 units. Overall, manufacturers remain cautious and are keeping production aligned with demand.

The market remains in a selective, replacement-driven recovery rather than a broad capacity expansion cycle. Stronger freight rates are supporting fleet confidence, but freight volume growth remains limited, and many carriers are still rebuilding margins. Low cancellations point to stable order commitments while strong Class 8 demand is diverting some fleet capital from trailers. Excess trailer capacity, high financing costs, elevated equipment prices, and uneven profitability will likely keep the recovery gradual.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Cost pressure on the trailer market continues to mount from Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff changes in April and announced or pending antidumping and countervailing duties actions on van-type trailers and subassemblies. As we noted last month, the May Producer Price Index for trailers indicated a sharp increase in prices. Although May’s index growth was revised slightly downward and June’s index was barely stronger than flat month over month, the recent jump in the PPI suggests that policy-related costs are very likely already reaching equipment prices.

“The main risk from these recent and pending policy decisions is that trailer sourcing shifts faster than domestic capacity can adjust. OEMs and suppliers with U.S.-based production could gain share and pricing power, but a sharp pullback from affected imports could tighten availability, extend lead times, and raise costs. The trade actions are, therefore, more likely to change where trailers are sourced and when fleets order, at least near term, than to create meaningful new demand.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Connect with Dan on LinkedIn

FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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FTR Reports U.S. Trailer Orders in June Reflect Solid Demand at 14,474 Units