Trailer Orders

July U.S. Trailer Orders Increased M/M to 16,862 Units

FTR reported U.S. heavy-duty trailer orders moved higher in July, bucking the usual summer lull. Net orders reached 16,862 units, up 22% month over month (m/m) and 130% year over year (y/y). July activity also came in 23% above the 10-year average for July of 13,665 units. The rebound from June points to a firmer demand backdrop, although order activity likely will be choppy until the 2027 order season begins around September. Through July, net orders in the current trailer order season (September 2025-July 2026) were up 5% from the prior season, and year-to-date (YTD) net orders were up 25% y/y.

Production moved in the opposite direction in July. Build fell 11% m/m and 9% y/y to 16,195 units, bringing year-to-date (YTD) output to 113,969 units, down 1% from last year.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Freight fundamentals are improving, but trailer demand remains more replacement-driven than expansionary. Tight capacity is supporting firmer rates, and we project that contract rates will continue to rise well into 2027 even as overall freight demand remains modest.

“Meanwhile, trade-related cost pressures continue to build on multiple fronts, including April’s changes on how Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum are applied and the ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty investigations related specifically to van equipment sourced from Mexico, Canada, and China. These developments could benefit domestic trailer manufacturers, but fleets likely will see higher costs. Overall, these actions are more likely to change where trailers and components are sourced, what they cost, and when fleets order than to create additional underlying demand.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Connect with Dan on LinkedIn

FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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July U.S. Trailer Orders Increased M/M to 16,862 Units