FTR reported U.S. heavy-duty trailer orders strengthened sharply in August, closing the 2026 order season on a strong note. Net orders totaled 24,144 units, up 43% month over month (m/m) and 221% year over year (y/y). The increase points to firmer replacement demand, supported by solid freight rates and tight capacity, although the y/y comparison continues to benefit from very weak prior-year activity. With the Class 8 truck pre-buy now concluded and the market transitioning into the 2027 ordering cycle, a greater share of fleet capital will likely shift toward trailer replacement. Some limited fleet growth is also possible.
The 2026 trailer order season (September 2025-August 2026) finished at 212,116 units, up 13% from the prior season. Year-to-date (YTD) net orders totaled 150,320 units, up 38% y/y. YTD build totaled 130,922 units, down 1% from the same period last year. U.S. heavy-duty trailer production was relatively steady in August. Builds increased 5% m/m to 16,953 units and were unchanged y/y.
In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.
The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “The stronger order performance is encouraging, but the recovery remains uneven by segment. Fleets appear more willing to address replacement needs, while elevated equipment costs and competing capital requirements continue to keep spending selective.
“Trade actions are becoming a larger part of the cost equation for U.S. trailer manufacturers and importers with recent changes including a reconfiguration of the steel and aluminum tariffs in April, a number of changes related to an antidumping/countervailing duties investigation regarding van-type trailers, and – most recently – retaliatory tariffs by Canada that include trailers. These trade measures are adding to an already high-cost trailer environment”.
Dan Moyer
Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles©2026 FTR Transportation Intelligence. All rights reserved.