Trailer Orders

Trailer Orders Stronger Than Expected in March at 18,045 Units

FTR reported that U.S. trailer demand in March came in stronger than expected. Net orders rose a surprising 36% month over month (m/m) to 18,045 units but remained down 15% year over year (y/y). The sequential gain is counter to typical seasonality as net orders usually fall around 20% m/m in March. Even with the sharp m/m increase, net orders were still below the 10-year March average of 20,276. Orders for the 2026 U.S. trailer order season (September 2025-March 2026) are down 19% y/y, and orders are down 15% for the year to date.

March U.S. trailer builds increased 15% m/m to 17,501 units but were slightly (1%) below prior-year levels. Year-to-date builds are also down 1% y/y, reflecting continued production discipline from manufacturers.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Despite the healthy increase in orders, trailer demand remains largely replacement driven as fleets still have excess trailer capacity. In contrast, Class 8 demand has strengthened meaningfully, supported by improving asset utilization, firmer rate expectations, and better visibility into tariff-adjusted pricing and EPA 2027 NOx regulations – all of which combine to drive an early-cycle recovery in orders. As a result, fleet capital allocation is increasingly shifting toward power units aligned with forward-looking needs, leaving trailers relatively deprioritized despite improved freight market conditions.

“Meanwhile, the U.S. trailer market continues to face persistent headwinds. Elevated steel and aluminum costs, ongoing trade uncertainty, high financing costs, and constrained capital spending are limiting incremental demand and keeping orders subdued.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Connect with Dan on LinkedIn

FTR tracks trailer orders for the transportation industry and reports on preliminary order numbers on a monthly basis.

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Trailer Orders Stronger Than Expected in March at 18,045 Units