What does 2016 have in store for trucking? Growth, but also risk.

01.22.16 | James Menzies,Truck News

If you’re having trouble figuring out how to interpret the inconsistent and unusual economic indicators you’re seeing, take heart, even economists are struggling with it.

Noel Perry, senior transportation expert with industry forecaster FTR, says many economists have been waiting for the US to break out of its slow growth recovery and return to steadier growth of 3-3.2%, but it’s just not happening.

“The economics community is having difficulty accepting it,” Perry said of a US GDP growth rate that’s been just over 2% in recent quarters. “Everybody thinks we’re about to jump out of what they think to be abnormal growth, back into normal growth. It hasn’t happened and I don’t think it’s going to happen.”

FTR is projecting US GDP growth of 2.4% in 2016, just slightly better than current levels. However, Perry is quick to add, “Our forecast is very optimistic.”

A record crowd tuned in for this week’s FTR State of Freight Webinar. Perry warned them of several risks on the horizon, including the chance of a global recession.

“Our economy is inextricably linked up to the world economy,” Perry said. “The biggest extreme downside risk is the chance of a global recession.”

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