Dan Moyer_ Use This One

Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles, commented, “The abrupt shift in demand in recent months has brought some risks as we have noted previously. One risk is that fleets will act out of ‘fear of missing out,’ or FOMO, to order earlier or in larger quantities than needed to avoid being shut out of 2026 production, thus raising cancellation risks. We still believe that risk is limited unless freight recovery stalls.

“The more notable risk from elevated orders is build execution. Demand is very strong, but OEMs and suppliers must now ramp production from a low Q1 base without creating labor, supply chain, quality, or inventory issues.

“Other risks remain, including uncertainties over regulatory policy and the durability of the freight recovery, elevated financing costs, and geopolitical developments that could keep fuel prices elevated. Overall, April orders reinforce the main message: Class 8 demand remains strong, but the focus is shifting from demand recovery to backlog quality and production execution.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles