The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI for Manufacturing (Purchasing Managers Index) jumped to 60.2 in June, up from 58.7 in May and rising for the second straight month. Considering that anything over 50 represents growth, the 60.2 is a robust reading which means everything must be wonderful in the manufacturing sector, right? Well not so… Read More »
GDP is high, and unemployment is low. Manufacturing is booming, and wages are rising. So, everyone is joyous, correct? Of course not, you are starting to see articles claiming that, if things are this good, a recession must be coming soon. So, it is time to again consider what the truck equipment markets indicate about… Read More »
Things appear to be booming: – 3% GDP growth in Q2. The word on the street turned out to be more reliable than the economists’ forecasts. – Unemployment rate of 4.4%. Economists set “full economic employment” at 4%, because it is estimated that at any time 4% of the labor force is in some form… Read More »
Economic calamities result in changes in micro-economic behavior which can last for years. My grandfather had accounts at eight different banks, just in case seven of the banks failed; my grandmother dutifully recycled her aluminum foil, 25 years after the Great Depression had ended. People fear that bad times might return, which causes them to… Read More »
Right into the Danger Zone Highway to the Danger Zone Right into the Danger Zone – Kenny Loggins Economic recessions are incredibly hard to predict. The next one, even more so, because the Great Recession was so impactful that some economic indicators and industry cycles have yet to return to a “normal” state. This… Read More »
Class 8 truck orders for Q4 are down 46% versus last year. The market that looked so strong just a few months ago, has taken a pronounced downturn recently. Production rates are falling and OEMs are laying off thousands of workers. What is happening, and why is it happening now? Industry and financial experts started… Read More »
This economic recovery has most assuredly been slow and steady. Just look at GDP growth for the last 5 years: 2010 = 2.5% 2011 = 1.6% 2012 = 2.3% 2013 = 2.2% 2014 = 2.4% 2015 = 2.5% Only 90 basis points of spread over a six-year period. Of course there are fluctuations, but economic… Read More »