The relentless pursuit of accuracy …… It can’t be the relentless pursuit of perfection because we are talking about forecasting, and perfect forecasts are as rare as winning the lottery. In October 2013, I became FTR’s Vice President of Commercial Vehicles. I had been considered an expert in the trailer market but was washed out… Read More »
Mr. Demand and Mr. Supply were constantly jogging along the Economic Trail. Most of the time, they ran in tandem, at about the same speed. But sometimes Mr. Supply ran ahead of Mr. Demand and often the roles were reversed. But then, they would instinctively adjust their pace to get back into balance once again.… Read More »
The federal government has pumped $850 billion of direct stimulus payments to citizens in response to the pandemic (Peter G. Peterson Foundation). In combination with the COVID health mobility restrictions, this cash infusion resulted in changes in retail spending patterns. Since the pandemic started, there has been a surge in retail goods spending as consumers… Read More »
In ’21, we see an economic recovery unlike never before. Of course, I am referring to 1921, after both WWI and the Spanish flu had ended. But the country’s mood now, as vaccines work to end this pandemic, is beginning to rise toward a euphoric state. This, combined with tremendous government stimulus efforts, has caused… Read More »
You’ve probably seen the headlines about some economists becoming increasingly concerned about inflation. So, should we be concerned? (Note: please keep reading. This is not one of those in-depth analysis involving T-bills and yield-curves, but more of a big picture, horse-sense type of view.) Definitions The most basic definition of inflation is: Too many dollars… Read More »
When the economy was in lockdown there was a strenuous debate on what would happen when the lockdown ended. One argument was the economy would stay in recession for months before gradually recovering. This view supported the case of preserving the lockdown since there was little benefit to opening back up. “You can’t just turn… Read More »
As 2019 progressed, economic growth slowed and there were more downside pressures than upside. In Q4, the commercial vehicle market abruptly turned south due to the great amount of uncertainty regarding the economy. Businesses abhor uncertainty because it makes planning difficult and greatly increases the risks of new investment. As a result, trucking fleets… Read More »
The current state of the Class 8 truck market has fleets carefully evaluating their truck needs for the next few months and placing orders for delivery within that timeframe. OEMs can easily schedule production to deliver on time and suppliers are having few problems keeping pace. The Class 8 market is currently operating as a… Read More »
You could make a movie out of the dramatic Class 8 market in 2019. But it would be a terrible movie. And a movie we have watched before. It Was the Best of Times The movie begins with great joy in the industry. The freight surge in 2018 creates unprecedented demand for trucks (not… Read More »
I regret to inform you that we are involved in a trade war. I regret it, because months ago I told my colleagues to calm down, proclaiming there would be no trade war. I believed that both China and the U.S. realized that a trade war would be too damaging to both countries and, therefore,… Read More »