In ’21, we see an economic recovery unlike never before. Of course, I am referring to 1921, after both WWI and the Spanish flu had ended. But the country’s mood now, as vaccines work to end this pandemic, is beginning to rise toward a euphoric state. This, combined with tremendous government stimulus efforts, has caused… Read More »
You’ve probably seen the headlines about some economists becoming increasingly concerned about inflation. So, should we be concerned? (Note: please keep reading. This is not one of those in-depth analysis involving T-bills and yield-curves, but more of a big picture, horse-sense type of view.) Definitions The most basic definition of inflation is: Too many dollars… Read More »
When the economy was in lockdown there was a strenuous debate on what would happen when the lockdown ended. One argument was the economy would stay in recession for months before gradually recovering. This view supported the case of preserving the lockdown since there was little benefit to opening back up. “You can’t just turn… Read More »
As 2019 progressed, economic growth slowed and there were more downside pressures than upside. In Q4, the commercial vehicle market abruptly turned south due to the great amount of uncertainty regarding the economy. Businesses abhor uncertainty because it makes planning difficult and greatly increases the risks of new investment. As a result, trucking fleets… Read More »
The current state of the Class 8 truck market has fleets carefully evaluating their truck needs for the next few months and placing orders for delivery within that timeframe. OEMs can easily schedule production to deliver on time and suppliers are having few problems keeping pace. The Class 8 market is currently operating as a… Read More »
You could make a movie out of the dramatic Class 8 market in 2019. But it would be a terrible movie. And a movie we have watched before. It Was the Best of Times The movie begins with great joy in the industry. The freight surge in 2018 creates unprecedented demand for trucks (not… Read More »
I regret to inform you that we are involved in a trade war. I regret it, because months ago I told my colleagues to calm down, proclaiming there would be no trade war. I believed that both China and the U.S. realized that a trade war would be too damaging to both countries and, therefore,… Read More »
The U.S. economy is setting a record this month for achieving the longest period of growth in its history. The economy has been growing for 121 months, breaking the previous streak from the 1990s. This doesn’t surprise me. Everything about this recovery has been unusual, so the fact that it is unusually long is par… Read More »
In the early 90’s, the Clinton administration provided trade benefits to China. There was strong criticism against these moves based on China’s human rights violations. However, President Clinton argued that expanding trade would lead to better relations with the Chinese and eventually better conditions for the Chinese people. As trade with China increased, the Clinton… Read More »
Imagine you are in a crowd of people cheering on a runner in a long-distance race. Your contestant is running at a hearty pace and is winning. But then you notice their speed has slowed some. The athlete is still running at a steady pace, and is still winning, but just not by as much.… Read More »